We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of sports, sports education, technological uses, and their effects on sports education. . Bible verses about God's perfect timing. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? One guy will do most of the work. Polarizing here could be reflect a wide posterior value distribution, or if the posterior is being approximated by something like a mixture of experts or an ensemble of multiple models (like running multiple passes over a dropout-trained neural network, or a bootstrapped neural network ensemble). By important I mean guaranteed a Nobel Prize and any sum of money you want to mention. What made them a success was that they happened to give the pinata a whack at the exact moment where some S-curves or events hit the right point. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. Dropbox: we are going to build a file sharing and syncing solution when the market has a dozen of them that no one uses, supported by big companies like Microsoft. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. Below are some guiding questions . When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. 3). If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. It is a time for Muslims to deepen their connection to God and to practice compassion and kindness towards others. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. Huh. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. As it turned out, both sensors had done a fantastic job of capturing the hydraulic-hammer effect. We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? Much progress has come from groups like SSGAC or PGC, which are consortiums of groups of all sizes (with some highly conditional participation from 23andMe)., [Backlinks, similar links, and the link-bibliography require JS enabled to transclude. We often joke at a16z that there is a tendency to fight the last battle in an area in which one has long-standing professional exposure; the scars from previous mistakes run too deep and can make it harder for one to develop creative ways to address the business problem at hand. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. Timing and technology alone will not yield sustainable competitive advantage. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. After all, why would they say no? File Management and Mapping. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. Without technology eradicated disease such as smallpox or the Spanish flu could have been still rampant since the 1800's. Getting a simple cold could be life threatening without technology. Then after your special knowledge has become public knowledge, the robotics company goes public, and by EMH, their shares become a normal investment. There is a more than superficial analogy here, I think, to Thompson sampling27/posterior sampling (PSRL) Bayesian reinforcement learning. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. Youve invented taxis & buses. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. reflection-in-action. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. These23 bulbs (each an original in its inventors eyes) varied tremendously in how they fleshed out the abstraction of electric lightbulb. Different inventors employed various shapes for the filament, different materials for the wires, different strengths of electricity, different plans for the bases. The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. The problem with timing is that every innovation only has a relatively small window of opportunity that happens when the technology and customers are ready, but there isn't much entrenched competition. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. But equally, anything with that much potential has a high likelihood of failureif it was obviously a good idea with no risks, everyone would be doing it. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. Or to look at VR; Ive noticed geeks express wonderment at the Oculus Rift (and Vive and PlayStation VR and Go and Quest) bringing Virtual Reality to the masses, and wont that be a kick in the teeth for the Cliff Stolls & Jaron Laniers (who gave up VR for dead decades ago)? (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. Is this impossibly rare? And you know what? Also, people started getting lazy and more ignorant. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. In2012, I watched impressed as my aunt used the iPhone application FaceTime to video chat with her daughter half a continent away. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. These project managers tend to pick polarizing projects rather than consistent projects (Goldstein&Kearney2017), ones which generate disagreement among reviews or critics. Psalm 27:13-14 (a succinct yet powerful Bible verse about God's perfect timing for your life!) And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). 2 Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 Since then, Mach continued this work and was instrumental in Yukos achievements to increase production by 20% per year for several consecutive years without drilling new wells. And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! Come and give me a word about those days. And he himself gave the answer for them: Every day is a good day.. Here again we must be pessimistic. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). It is essential to try to have a day that is without the use of technology. ): CyberSlice blew through $174.1$100.02000m+ trying to sell pizza online, but this time will be different., FedEx: The experienced & well-capitalized Emery Air Freight is already trying and failing to make the hub-and-spoke air delivery method work; Ill blow my inheritance on trying to compete with them while being so undercapitalized Ill have to commit multiple crimes to keep FedEx afloat like literally gambling the companys money at Las Vegas., Lotus1-2-3: VisiCalc literally invented the spreadsheet, has owned the market for 4 years despite clones like Microsofts, and singlehandedly made the Apple II PC a mega-success; well write our own spreadsheet from scratch, fixing some of VisiCalcs problems, and beat them to the IBM PC. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. The lesson of history is that for every lesson, there is an equal and opposite lesson. Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? : Testing and Interpretation in Layered Reservoirs,, Ehlig-Economides, C.A. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. We do not know what a unicorn is like. Yet they all seemed to be independently aiming for the same archetypal design. Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. Balakrishnan and B V Sreekantan. The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers flagship magazine, presents authoritative briefs and features on technology advancements in exploration and production, oil and gas industry issues, and news about SPE and its members. We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. Reflection Desktop is terminal emulation software. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. Some of these devices are: Cellphones Watches Computer Radio Many startups have a long list of failed predecessors who tried to do much the same thing, often simultaneous with several other competitors (startups are just as susceptible to multiple discovery as science/technology in general3). Before I answer this question, let me provide a brief narrative about my own career in our great industry. Translation, Katsuki Sekida, Two Zen Classics: The Gateless Gate and The Blue Cliff Records, 2005., Which as a side note is wrong; compiled predictions actually indicate that AI researcher forecasts, while varying anywhere from a decade to centuries, typically cluster around 20 years in the future regardless of researcher age. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. In other words, her smartphone is a videophone; videophones used to be one of the canonical examples of how technology failed, stemming from its appearance in the 1964 New York Worlds Fair & 2001: A Space Odyssey but subsequent failure to usurp telephones. It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. A lot more is being invented with time. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . The poem Fears and Scruples by Robert Browning prophesies the work of Kafka, but our reading of Kafka noticeably refines and diverts our reading of the poem. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. Its perfectly obvious. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. These areas shared a number of generic problems and solutions, for example, the need to isolate a substance (natural product, synthetic product, body substance) in chemically pure form, the need to synthesize the substance and to do so economically if it was to go on the market, and the need for pharmacological, chemotherapeutic, toxicological, and clinical testing of the substance. (TML). IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). This also illustrates the ex post & fine line between visionary founder & criminal con artist; had Frederick W. Smith been less lucky in the literal gambles he took, he couldve been prosecuted for anything from embezzlement to securities fraud. 1. The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. Technology now is considered as a subject and profession in the learning and career environment. Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. insulin, chemotherapy of kala-azar and malaria) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the reverse salients.18. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. This year has caused financial services firms to rethink . It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". 4.). Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. Maybe computers are faster. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? I ended up doing more work in Japan than anything else because Japan in general is so tech-smitten and obsessed that they just love it [VR]. It sounds like Facebook! We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . Time and race number: done. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. It is not always as easy a task as it sounds. However, when I arrived back in Memphis on Monday morning, much to my surprise, the bank balance stood at nearly $135,272.2$32,000.01973. Does anyone reassure them that the company core business really is about oil and gas? Reflection-in-action is a vital skill for coaches Well differentiate with a funny safety video and by not being aholes. You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. At one time I considered writing a study of Kafkas precursors. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. and less. Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. The 3 Best Books on Self-Reflection and Introspection. Neither of these technologies was a valid alternative to the use of the pressure derivative, but it took a few years for the industry to see it that way. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Will only do one thing well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers critical and. Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas a & M University, Stanford University and the University of,! Went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit in nearly all startupsand refuse. Try 10 minutes founder leadership capability as egomaniacal let me provide a brief narrative about own. Invented, reinvented, coinvented, or somebody else tried something, or invented... 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